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Monday, June 19, 2017

Four by New Deal Demoncrat


Four bits of data worth looking at:

New Deal Demoncrat - household permits and starts a long leading negative. Um, actually, I wonder why you think that? Because a turndown in housing construction would be an effect of a recession, not a cause. Unless, maybe, you think the next recession will be a Volcker due to the Fed forcing a yield curve inversion, in which case I'd ask how likely it is that housing contractors plan their work according to Fed policy. Basically, I'm unconvinced, though I have now studied enough economics to believe in time travel and inverse causation now.

New Deal Demoncrat - real wages make new high. Which is a good thing. So maybe this plus the previous, plus Trump's evisceration of the safeguards put in place to protect against the last crisis happening again, means an imminent housing bubble? There's been a lot of consumer deleveraging, right?

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Real estate, M1 & M2, and tax withholding all look fine.

New Deal Demoncrat - every little thing that you say or do, I'm hung up: hung up on you. Hey, it's not my fault you're quoting Madonna, buddy.


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