Thursday, February 19, 2015

And I won't be going to PDAC this year.


I could say I'm refusing to go to PDAC because they've got the gall to include a clown like David Morgan on their letter writers' list after his lackey's laughable buttrape at the hands of Liberty Silver, or fellow Liberty Silver victim Jeb Handwerger, when there are much more competent junior mining analysts available to add to the speaker list.

Like me.

But in reality I'm not going because I don't have a printer at home, if y'all remember I no longer have an engineering company to do my print jobs for me, and so I have no way to print out the stupid nametag card thingie that they give you.

Plus for fuck's sake we've been suffering through a month of fucking Winnipeg weather here and I don't want to have to take the train in fucking -30 weather on a Sunday. Frankly I'm avoiding going outside at all.

In any case, I've found over the past few years that whatever the newsletter writers say at PDAC, they'll happily repeat later in interviews with our junior mining media sweethearts Daniela and Vanessa, and whoever else will give them 5 minutes in front of a video camera. Plus, there'll also be more interesting interviews of more competent people on BNN.

So there y'all go, newsletter clowns: you don't have to worry about me mocking your clownish presentations.

I'll just mock your interviews.


Planning the future for gold: 2015 Indian monsoon outlook


With the caveat that we're far too early in the year for this to have any value whatsoever beyond calming down the perpetual worrying of the Indian farmers:

Economic Times - it's raining men happiness: El Nino unlikely. Also,

Business Standard - better chance of a normal monsoon this year. Quote:
The Australian Weather Bureau's latest forecast is that international models surveyed by it indicate tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (a critical indicator of El Niño) are likely to be within the neutral range for at least the next three months. This is a big positive for India, as data for 1880 to 2005, compiled by private weather forecaster Skymet, show 90 per cent of all evolving El Niño years have led to below-normal rainfall, with 65 per cent of these resulting in drought. In the past decade, 2002, 2004 and 2009 were drought years due to El Niño emergence.

“All global weather models as of now are showing that El Niño might remain neutral during the Indian monsoon,” confirmed D S Pai, director of India Meteorological Department’s long-range forecast division, told Business Standard.

He cautioned it was too early for a firm prediction, as the monsoon is affected by other weather phenomena, too. IMD usually issues its first official forecast for the southwest monsoon in April, revising this in June.
Which is good, because rainfall is necessary for Indian farming, and Indian farming is a huge part of their economy, and Indian farmers having more money and the Indian economy doing well mean more gold demand.

If you believe in that whole lie about supply and demand, right Cookie?


China Spring Festival and gold


With gold having come off its strong advances in other currencies:


and with all of China on vacation til Feb 25th, thus a big part of physical demand being offline, I see no reason to be long gold or the miners right now.

And it's always been the case that you puke before PDAC if you know what's good for you, which should mean there's little opportunity to make money on gold anymore til the summer.

So maybe the deflation narrative dies off, the pop in Japan brings new hope to the investor class, the US continues printing solid economic numbers, and gold goes back into the doldrums til the annual June pop.

Too bad if so, cos I love making money on junior miners, but I'll wait for that fat pitch instead of wasting my time thank you very much.

Meanwhile I'll continue owning the US and Japan.


Japan charts: to da moon Alice


Japan's taken off:

Brad DeLong on Thatcher, mass murder, and extermination of political opponents



Brad DeLong - a letter from Margaret Thatcher to Friedrich Hayek. I'll reprint it from his post:

February 17, 1982

Thank you for your letter of 5 February. I was very glad that you able to attend the dinner so thoughtfully organized by Walter Salomon. It was not only a great pleasure for me, it was, as always, instructive and rewarding to hear your views on the great issues of our times.

I was aware of the remarkable success of the Chilean economy in reducing the share of Government expenditure substantially over the decade of the 70s. The progression from Allende's Socialism to the free enterprise capitalist economy of the 1980s is a striking example of economic reform from which we can learn many lessons.

However, I am sure you will agree that, in Britain with our democratic institutions and the need for a high degree of consent, some of the measures adopted in Chile are quite unacceptable. Our reform must be in line with our traditions and our Constitution. At times the process may seem painfully slow. But I am certain we shall achieve our reforms in our own way and in our own time. Then they will endure.

You'd have to wonder exactly which measures adopted in Chile did Thatcher have a problem with! Pinochet's Fascist coup? The stadium executions? Operation Condor, a multinational program of political extermination led and facilitated by the US? Assassination of political opponents? Political murders still occurring in 1985, three years after this letter? Burning demonstrators alive? Threatening the murder of American Congressmen?

Fuck, and I thought Mulroney was a cunt.


Good long-form article on deflation in Spain


I wanted to pass on a good long-form article about deflation in Spain:

Fistful of Euros - Spain's "good" deflation.


Why economics fails: politics


Kruggers and others go on at length about this topic, but it's easier to get across by way of illustration. So, here's the educational and professional background of the people involved in the present Eurocrisis to help you understand the situation on the ground in Europe.


First, the candidates for the Sensible Party, with their economic experience underlined:

Yanis Varoufakis - After training in mathematics and statistics, he received his economics doctorate in 1987 at the University of Essex. Before that he had already begun teaching economics and econometrics at the University of Essex and the University of East Anglia. In 1988, he spent a year as a Fellow at the University of Cambridge.

From 1989 until 2000 he taught as Senior Lecturer in Economics at the Department of Economics of the University of Sydney. In 2000, he moved back to his native Greece where he became Professor of Economic Theory at the University of Athens. In 2002, Varoufakis established The University of Athens Doctoral Program in Economics (UADPhilEcon), which he directed until 2008. From January 2013 he taught at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin.

[In other words, a somewhat prestigious professor of economics.]


Mario Draghi - He was born in Rome, where he studied at the Massimiliano Massimo Institute and graduated from La Sapienza University under the supervision of Federico Caffè. Then he earned a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1976 with his thesis titled Essays on economic theory and applications, under the supervision of Franco Modigliani and Robert Solow. He was full professor at the Cesare Alfieri Faculty of Political Science of the University of Florence from 1981 until 1994 and fellow of the Institute of Politics at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (2001).

From 1984 to 1990 he was the Italian Executive Director at the World Bank. In 1991, he became general director of the Italian Treasury, and held this office until 2001.

[In other words, a very prestigious professor of economics who's also helped run the world.]


Next, the candidates for the Silly Party, with whatever little they have going for them underlined:

Angela Merkel - Merkel was educated in Templin and at the University of Leipzig, where she studied physics from 1973 to 1978. Merkel worked and studied at the Central Institute for Physical Chemistry of the Academy of Sciences in Berlin-Adlershof from 1978 to 1990. After being awarded a doctorate (Dr. rer. nat.) for her thesis on quantum chemistry, she worked as a researcher and published several papers.

[In other words, after making it as far as miserable postdoc slave labour in a physics lab, in a Communist country with no economics whatsoever, she went into politics.]


Jeroen Dijsselbloem - He studied agricultural economics at Wageningen University (1985–1991), majoring in business economics, agricultural policy, and social and economic history, for which he received his academic degree of ingenieur in 1991, which is equivalent to a Master of Science degree. Dijsselbloem did research in business economics at the University College Cork (1991) in Ireland, but he did not receive a degree from this university.

[In other words, he did actually get as far as (what looks like) a transdisciplinary Master's with economics, but then he gave up and went into politics.]


Wolfgang Schäuble - After completing his Abitur in 1961, Schäuble studied law and economics at the University of Freiburg and the University of Hamburg, which he completed in 1966 and 1970 by passing the First and Second State Examinations respectively, becoming a fully qualified lawyer.

In 1971 Schäuble obtained his doctorate in law, with a dissertation called "The public accountant's professional legal situation within accountancy firms".

Schäuble entered the tax administration of the state of Baden-Württemberg, eventually becoming a senior administration officer in the Freiburg tax office. Subsequently he became a practising registered lawyer at the district court of Offenburg, from 1978 to 1984.

[In other words, though he took a bit of economics, he ended up chucking it in to become an accountancy lawyer, then went into politics.]


And thus, real economics will lose out to politics yet again.

This is (yet another reason) why you don't buy Europe at a 15 forward P/E, you sell it.


Wednesday, February 18, 2015

FOMC explains why it's the FOMC and the idiot talking heads on CNBC are the idiot talking heads on CNBC


Calculated Risk - FOMC says yes, they remember Trichet's fuckup. The minutes show that the FOMC realizes they should keep rates low until they actually see some inflation, to avoid the disastrous result that Trichet's rate hike had on Europe.

This means the FOMC are smarter than all the idiot talking heads on CNBC and all the ignorant blowhards with blogs on the internet and all the pompous clowns underperforming SPY with their shitty little hedge funds.

It'll be interesting to see if this is enough, over the next few days, to slay the deflation trade that's monopolizing the markets.

En passant, here's a pic of Mila Kunis and a kitten:


How about some news?


Haven't been passing you much news, because there's really nothing going on, except of course for Greece and I don't want to pass on yet more completely uninformed, politically-motivated opinion: you've got that worthless clown Michelle Caruso Cabrera for that.

But here's a bit of stuff to read:

Bespoke - 2014 vs 2015. I have no doubt that Wall Street Whitey has already incorporated this into his trading narrative.

Crossing Wall Street - the great Jesse Livermore. His book was really good, btw.

FT Alphaville - crush the financial sector to end the great stagnation. No, the Financial Times hasn't suddenly decided to start fomenting Marxist revolution; rather, it's a summary of the BIS' new paper "why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic growth (pdf)", and it's a good read if you've been getting into Piketty. God forbid, I think we're starting to see pushback against the 35-year capitalist kleptocratic programme!

The Atlantic - what ISIS really wants. Long-form reading on ISIS. Did you know they're an apocalyptic doomsday cult? And did you know that this is what you get when you faithfully follow the holy books of any religion?


Again with the Japan breakout attempt


Our swarthy buddy with the English accent whose name rhymes with Blichael Blaoul has been very insistent that the economic data out of Japan shows promise, so over the past week I've taken my junior mining profits and put them into CJP.to for a bit of diversification (otherwise it'd all be in HQU.to and HSU.to).

So here goes Japan, yet again, with the once more threatening an upside breakout:


What I like more is that Japan has already, slowly and patiently, broken out in CAD terms, because CJP.to is CAD-hedged:


I doubt you can see another 100% pop like in 2012-2013.

Rather, what's significant is that Japan is one of the economic titans, and any positive Japan data will be positive for the world economy as a whole, and American lamestream media hasn't really bothered to talk about Japan in the past year given their chart's been going nowhere (in USD terms) so this breakout will be positive news out of left field.

As well as, y'know, an improvement in Japan proving the Austerians wrong yet again.


Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Happy Spring Festival! Here's your gold smackdown


And with China's Spring Festival beginning, international Jewry takes yet another opportunity for a smackdown in the price of gold and silver.

I guess you can ask yourself whether you think they'll come back before PDAC or not.


Sunday, February 15, 2015

This blog has received a complaint


Well, it was going to happen someday.

I just received a complaint about the swearing in my posts.

Here it is: