Saturday, March 29, 2014
Hey, Bob Lefsetz! Do you think Miley Cyrus would ever impress Letterman with her schtick? I mean he got a lot of mileage out of Larry "Bud" Melman, Chris Elliott, and Brother Theodore; then again, each of them was able to be passably funny more than once.
Maybe Miley could do Stupid Human Tricks?
Cos Lana Del Rey was able to do this:
Letterman is suitably impressed at the end.
A proper economist should probably look over this and clean it up so that it makes sense. Maybe it doesn't even.
But I just came up with an interesting attempt to explain to myself (and someone in the comments section) the emerging market bull/bear cycle. Note of course I'm not an economist, I work in engineering.
So you should take this post as simply one guy trying to comprehend economics on his own.
Anyway, the question was: why can't EMs exploit a DM secular bull market? I was saying the answer is the cost of money and the change in flows, because I've read that smart people say this. But I never really tried to puzzle out why that would be.
OK, here goes:
Friday, March 28, 2014
SCIENTISTS CREATE A QUANTUM ENTANGLEMENT ACROSS 103 DIMENSIONS: here's what you need to know before the coming of Cthulhu and Shub-Niggurath
Science Daily - scientists create a quantum entanglement across 103 dimensions. Apparently, they can't even explain what "across 103 dimensions" means, but I think we can hazard a guess.
It's very likely that at least one of those 103 other dimensions contains some eternal race of super-evolved (and thus, obviously, super-eeevil) beings who, having noticed our childlike first piddlings into the swimming pool of the multiverse, are now preparing to attack us from across the trans-dimensional rift.
Our universe is not only doomed, it is transdoomed.
Thankfully, us goldbugs have nothing to worry about. After all, we own gold for precisely these sorts of situations. Right? I mean, if reality itself is ripped apart and cast asunder by an invasion of beings of unutterable horror, replaced instead by some inconceivable madness whose very being offends not only sanity but logic and mathematics, then what's your stupid fiat currency going to be worth, huh?
And don't get me started about bitcoins. Good luck accessing that bitcoin wallet after 1+1 becomes 3, bitch!
I have to go stock up on canned goods now. Nummy nummy Habitant pea soup. For when Yog-Sothoth attacks.
I stumbled across something neat and wanted to share it with y'all:
NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts - human utilization of subsurface extraterrestrial environments (pdf).
Apparently there are lava tubes on Mars, and some are even accessible from the surface.
The neat thing about this? A lava tube would help you shield people from solar radiation, and also give you a container that can retain heat and an atmosphere.
The authors actually go into just enough detail to make this an interesting read, without going all fruity like New Scientist.
I'm sure you geologists out there would love to read about this stuff, so feel free to print out a copy of this 79-page pdf on your company's shareholder-funded colour printer.
When you have a song that Suicide wishes they'd written, and that the Jesus and Mary Chain wishes they had written, you know it's a good song:
A certain swarthy, recently-embearded Englishman from the investment fund world noted yesterday (in a private, unshareable blog post that I certainly can't access oh no) that the present broad market weakness might simply be the result of "allocation season", and that it'll be done after next week. So I guess we can just take our summer positions now.
He also noted the rise in the belly of the Treasury curve is good for banks. And Josh Brown said the banks already are trading at a dismal P/E, so I guess that's the place to go for the next few months? The NASDAQ is already popping its little biotech & 3D bubble, so that's probably done.
Anyway, here's some news:
Crossing Wall Street - there's no such thing as value. It's probably been beaten into your skull already, if you're a value-investing gold mining person. Still, let's quote:
I’ll let you in on a little secret: there’s no such thing as value. There’s no magic value gnome hiding underneath each stock. Instead, there’s only price.In other words: quit trying to catch falling knives.
Value is a fiction, but a highly useful one. It’s an excellent way for us to think about a stock.
Telling us that a stock is below its value doesn’t tell us much. What if the stock’s value falls? Or what if the price/value gap grows wider? The price/value dichotomy is further complicated by the fact that price itself can impact value. For example, an elevated share price can make it easier for a company to raise money.
With any investment analysis, your constants are most likely highly contextual, and as a result, they’ll do a poor job of predicting out-of-sample results. That doesn’t bother me so much, and it’s also why I don’t much care for price targets. For all their sophistication, valuation models aren’t reality. They’re merely a blurry and highly conditional image of reality.
The proper job of an analyst is to judge possible outcomes and their impact. Value is a tool, but it must always be seen within the context of if/then scenarios. Too often, modelers become enthralled by their model and don’t look at what the underlying message is.
Bespoke - rotation into emerging markets. I don't see why you should. They're fucked. You could make a case that they're oversold, that their fortunes haven't reversed as fast as the market thinks they have; but this shouldn't be a bottom in EMs unless something is really different this time around.
Mining.com - coking coal crashes calamitously. Two takeaways: Frik Els obviously reads this blog religiously, and supply is increasing while miners are all operating at a loss already. Thus the secular bear market in commodities continues.
Huffington Post - GOP lawmakers want to ban online gambling because it takes money away from Sheldon Adelson's casinos. You thought this crony corruption only happened in third-world backwaters? Well, it does!
Never heard of them back then, not til now. Apparently the drummer ended up joining Slowdive after this band split when the singer and one other guy left for university.
It's pretty damn forward-sounding for 1989, that's for sure.
Other than enjoying the music, which is kinda nice for 1989, I just have to say that Petra has the absolute fucking sexiest 12-string guitar I have ever seen. A 12-string hollow-body with humbuckers and an extra-long headstock? Holy Christ, I want that guitar so bad.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Well, the US market seems to be in a process of correcting. It'll probably take til spring earnings before everyone stops being a fucking pussy.
And the gold miners seem done like dinner - they've had their pop, now we'll watch Brent Cook's long drawn-out bottom play for the rest of 2014. If gold can't fight back on Indian election news, it certainly won't do well during the Indian drought this summer.
I guess I could post about European markets, but nobody gives a shit, so really what is there left for me to talk about on this blog?
So, let's have another video marathon - this one with Lana Del Rey.
This is inspired by that little bitch Bob Lefsetz, who called Lana "over" upon her disastrous SNL appearance. He proved he was a deaf mongoloid when he seriously conjectured that Miley Cyrus' cover of "Summertime Sadness" was actually better than Lana's.
What's happened since then? Lana's already sold out her spring tour. Apparently Miley has a tour too, where we all hear she's appearing as a parody of herself - apparently there's a Giant Miley Tongue, a Singing Vagina, and my god why am I even talking about this? Seriously Bob, which of these two singers is an embarrassment now?
Bob Lefsetz also called Lana a manufactured artist, which is funny considering Miley Cyrus had her own TV show on Disney, her dad was a famous country singer, and her granddad was a Kentucky politician. She has all that and has to resort to self-parody to keep her career going for another six months.
But I guess Lefsetz hates the idea of an artist who carve out a career on the internet. Technology's too threatening to him. He's probably more interested in someone who resorts to getting tabloid press by flinging poop like a monkey.
So, here's Lana Del Rey singing "Young and Beautiful". Listen to it and try to imagine someone with no class singing it, like Miley Cyrus. You can't. Because it's more of a Beth Gibbons sound, it's actually got class.
OK, just for IKN, here's the state of the goldbug scene in animated Beaker GIFs:
And in case you don't have enough Beaker in your life, here's all you need:
I wish I could close with a quote from a recent issue of a certain junior mining newsletter, about how two week ago it was obviously the start of a new bull market in gold and if you can't see it you're blind....
Here's the EMA of $BPGDM vs $GDM, weekly chart:
So I guess it's a good time to get out of the miners just a week or two after the weekly short-term EMA crosses the weekly longer-term SMA.
What does that even mean?
Well, I guess if the weekly EMA(10) of the $BPGDM bullish % crosses the weekly SMA(50), that means that people have been more bullish recently than they have over the longer term. That'd explain why the price goes up, but it'd also explain why it goes back down - there are longer-term holders who still want to puke, and so when the market flies up on shorter-term demand they have a way of getting out.
That seems a plausible explanation, anyway.
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Here's some evening reading and rasslin' videos.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - 361 Capital weekly research briefing. Read it. Quote:
In 2016, for example, the Fed projects the jobless rate will reach 5.4%, economic output will be growing at a rate near 3% and inflation will be just below 2%.Is that the inflation you're looking for, mister goldbug? Or are you asserting that US economic output will explode far higher than 3% in the next year, thus driving up inflation?
Reading is the cure for buttfuck ignorance.
Calculated Risk - chemical activity improves in February. Another indicator of growth, this one centered on manufacturing.
Mining.com - gold price dips below $1300. And here's the money shot from the ever-loveable Frik Els:
On a technical basis gold is also close to dangerous waters with a key indicator – the 200-day moving average – currently sitting at $1,296.60. If the gold price should fall through this level all bets are off concerning further weakness.BAH GOD KING! THEY CHOKESLAMMED GOLD STRAIGHT TO HELL! AS GOD IS MY WITNESS! GOLD IS BROKEN IN HALF! WON'T SOMEBODY STOP THIS MATCH! THIS YELLOW METAL IS A CURRENCY FOR GOD'S SAKE!
Uh... and for those of you who need context, the above is (partly) from the famous Undertaker vs Mankind "Hell in a Cell":
which sort of became a running joke:
Gold is taking a run at $1300. The daily chart shows a big red candle pushing through the SMA(50) too, which is bad.
Silver already lost $20.
Things sure ain't lookin' good, goldbug boy!
CEO.ca - Goldman's bearish gold call. Quote:
Goldman is forecasting an acceleration of US economic growth which should in turn lead to higher US real interest rates and strong headwinds for the gold price. GS has posted a $1,050 12-month price target for gold, which if it comes true, would bring gold back to test important support from early-2010.
From our vantage point, Goldman’s bearish gold call is unlikely at best and rests on several improbable macroeconomic variables all occurring (or not occurring…) at once:
■Accelerating US economic growth while emerging markets and China continues to wobble? This is reminiscent of the ‘decoupling’ we heard a lot about circa 2007-2008
■Strong growth without rising rates of inflation
■A 50-100 bps jump in rates not contributing to a significant stock market correction
■China avoiding a hard landing as it comes back down to earth after two decades of extraordinary economic growth and a massive property bubble (the recent copper decline says otherwise….)
■The Russia/Ukraine situation de-escalating while other global hot spots remain calm (Syria, Iran, China/Japan, etc.)
1. Yes, EMs can decouple from the US. Crack open a history book and read about the last secular DM bull/EM bear market pre-2000. Or just read Jim Rogers' Hot Commodities. The EMs are already being killed as high inflation and higher rates strangle their economies; Russia, India and Brazil are already staring at the possibility of 0% growth.
2. An acceleration from the present US growth rate will not result in "strong" growth. It'll result in average growth. Nobody's calling for a US growth explosion in the next 12 months, which is the extent of Goldman's $1050 call.
As an aside, do you really want to be lumped in with the inflationistas who've been calling it wrong for the past 5 years?
3. A 50-100bps jump in rates will cause a bit of a temporary hissy-fit in the stock market, sure, but it will also signify the end of extraordinary monetary policy. Do you really think a UST10Y yield of 4% will instantly destroy America? If so, why didn't it destroy America the last time it was at 4%? And this still assumes the UST10Y can ever even get to 4%; this will require a good hard push from the Fed funds rate, it's not going to happen on its own. And as Yellen recently made explicit, a Fed funds rate rise is not going to happen in the next 12 months, which is the extent of Goldman Sachs' $1050 call.
4. China definitely can avoid a hard landing. It's a borderline DM now, more like Korea than a stone-age open sewer like India. The problem with copper is the gross oversupply.
But wait a sec... did you get that the wrong way round? Did Goldman say that China avoiding a hard landing drops gold to $1050?
China having a hard landing will kill the gold price, since it'll mean a few thousand tons of Chinese gold getting liquidated for scrap into a market where China had been the only buyer. China avoiding a crisis and continuing to grow means Chinese people continuing to buy gold luxuries and allocate money into gold investments.
5. As for "global hot spots"... what did the Ukraine crisis do for the gold price? It tanked it. Look at your own chart: Russian troops are massing on their border and yet gold is threatening to lose $1300 support. That politics crap is no reason to own gold.
There's a reason you're a technician and not an economist, boy. You should stick to bullshitting about charts from now on. People can't tell when a chart "technician" is bullshitting, until after your calls are proven wrong.
As far as I'm concerned? Goldman's call is bullshit, but they might still get the direction right. India's going to have a drought this year, and Modi might not bother to actually drop gold duties.
And all those white folks who bought gold futures expecting the bottom was in might all decide to pile out of the market as fast as they can once gold loses $1300. Just like they all piled out in April 2013.
Let's check in on that new bull market in the miners, shall we?
And here's GDXJ:
Ouch! That's a 20% drop in a week and a half.
It's funny that both are barfing lower on lower volume... you'd think the volume dwindle over the past 3 days means you're closer to a bottom.
I guess all the hedgies that bought in mid-Feb are busy dumping their last few shares at nasty losses.
Problem is, those guys will probably never want to touch miners again. So where does the next play money come from?
Anyway, I guess people will be expecting a bounce at GDX $23 and GDXJ $35, since those are shoulder points in a H&S bottom. We'll see. I'd rather stay out til it gets back above its EMA(16).
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Radar Online - Taylor Swift can't get a date. Um... ?
“Taylor’s advisers are tired of setting her up on dates only to have her strange personality scare men away,” one source revealed.Um... ??
“Taylor is almost impossible to find dates for because of the nature of her music, which focuses heavily on heartbreak and ex-boyfriends. None of the guys she shows interest in want to be the subject of a mean song six months down the road or be painted the bad guy, so Taylor’s team want her to take a break from boys.”
OK, I see the problem. Taylor's management team seems to be trying to stud her like a racehorse. They should maybe be working on rescuing her career instead.
(pics after the break)
LIBERTARIAN RULES FOR MONOPOLY, DOW THEORY BORKENED, TIPS YIELD WILL STAY BELOW 1%: here's what you need to know
Here's a few more newsbits:
Bespoke - Dow Theory is borkened. Whoops! Pursuant to my post about the Transports from earlier today, apparently $TRAN outperformance has now become a signal the market is about to puke, and not a disconfirmation of $SPX weakness.
USA Today - fear of rising rates overblown? It's dumb but it has to be repeated: rising rates right now is good, because it means normalization of monetary policy.
Mining.com - this is the scariest gold chart you'll see all day. Hoo boy, it's the TIPS vs gold chart again:
What's that? You're saying I'm reading the chart wrong? No, that's exactly what the chart says. Without a mechanism to explain how the independent variable causes the dependent variable, all you're left with is an unexplained correlation, and unexplained correlation goes both ways buddy.
And funny enough, it fits in well with what Krugman's been saying, that there's too much capital and not enough guaranteed rent opportunities, and that the rentier class should no longer expect to make >1% a year risk-free for doing nothing.
Mineweb - Kinross reminds Harper that, um, you think maybe you could not, y'know, encourage Russia to nationalize our gold mines? I find it very funny that Kinross is saying "think of the poor pensioners who own our stock". Why should Harper care? I mean Kinross' shitty stock is down 75% in the past 3 years, right? The pensioners who owned Kinross have already been fucked.
New York Times - Monopoly invites new rules. It's been forever since I played, but here's an option: One person gets to play "the poors".
1. Whenever you pay a tax or a fine, it goes to "the poors" and not the bank. Because sociamalism.
2. Whenever "the poors" land on a square with your real estate, you lose one house due to dropping property values, rent control, and vandalism.
3. Whenever you land on the same square as "the poors", they rob you of $50.
4. Every turn you're in jail, you have to pay "the poors" $50 in protection, else you gonna get raped.
5. Every time "the poors" pass "Go", they collect their $200 from the other players (not the bank) because taxation is theft.
6. "The poors" draw no chance or community chest cards, pay no taxes, and go to jail on every double (except if already in jail) for "driving while poor".
7. "The poors" don't get to own anything ever. Any money they do have is assumed spent on booze, drugs, lottery tickets and fatty foods.
8. Once a player is bankrupted, they become another of "the poors".
9. "The poors" are already bankrupted but they're still on the board, because Paul Ryan hasn't built the gas chambers yet.
Hard to tell whether the US markets will go up or down from here, no? Everything looks like it's rolling over.
Transports have a good point to launch from.
So maybe all the chaos in the US market is just people repositioning out of previous winners?
As for gold, this morning it just took a run at $1300 but turned back up.
Ukraine isn't over, the bond markets have had their two day freakout over Yellen, Indian election season is still happening, China gloom has clawed back into the lamestream media, and OpEx has passed.
So at this point I would expect to see gold stabilize.
If it pukes below $1300 today, it has no good reason left except that the market has given up on it. Go away, the market will remember getting burned for a long time.
If the miners underperform gold to the downside, it means the big wave of money that bought the fad in mid-February still has to get out.
But look at this:
God-dayum! If that big red bar from yesterday doesn't look like capitulation volume, my name's not secretly Mila Kunis.
We'll see what happens today.
A few more newsbits, hot off the presses:
FT beyond brics - default risks surge at Chinese steel mills. Here's what you should pay attention to:
Hamilton said debt defaults in the steel industry are a distinct likelihood, given that Beijing is “trying to change the mindset” so that at least some of those companies that deserve to fail do fail.100% true. This is simply managed deleveraging and repricing of risk from a government that manages everything, including prices. Can it get out of hand? Sure, but do you think the government is stupid enough to let it get out of hand? Have you seen any China charts recently?
BI - Everyone's freaked out that China's Minsky Moment has arrived, and by that we mean that we interviewed an expert who says it hasn't. Another misleading headline from Business Blindsider.
FT beyond brics - clandestine bookies tip Modi. But as the article notes, things can change by the time voting begins. Anyway, I'm surprised that gold isn't still bullish in the runup to a Modi victory, given how much white people should think that a Modi victory can change the supply-demand equation for gold.
Daniel Drezner - on sanctioning Russia. It won't get Russia out of Crimea because Pooty has already changed the facts on the ground.
Let's clear out the inbox:
Bespoke - Nasdaq getting nuked. Too much long, too many on one side of the boat and now it's backing off? I dunno.
BI - Rosenberg on capex upside. He still thinks capex will surprise to the upside. I think we might have to wait til real rates rise, so businesses get the final push out the door.
BNN - interview with Michael Shaoul. Mikey, you look like shit with that beard. Data has been above Fed expectations for a few quarters, so now they want to tighten. And he doesn't see anything which disproves a historical new bull market in the SPY.
Reuters - Indian farmers driven to suicide as hail ruins crops. Winter crops are getting killed here and there. Not good for Indian gold buying. Even worse if the farmers' defaulting loans are gold-backed.
der Spargel - how Moscow is moving to destabilize eastern Ukraine. Some background from closer to ground zero than the ignorant USA.
BBC - how Russia planned Wall Street raid. I wouldn't believe it if the story was printed by the usual suspects, but this is the BBC: apparently Pooty-Poot wanted to chokeslam the S&P during the 2008 financial crisis. Pooty, no wonder everyone hates you.
Monday, March 24, 2014
So Kylie Minogue is cool? Izzat so?
OK, here's a single from the new album.
This would make a gay bar break out in laughter. A very gay bar where people appreciate irony. A very gay bar where people appreciate both irony and Kylie Minogue's more recent output.
Who the hell writes this shit?
Here's just a couple more things:
Bespoke - sentiment is slightly bearish. Almost as if the market is waiting for something.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - yes, biotech is a bubble. The interesting part for me is this Soros quote:
“I have developed a rudimentary theory of bubbles along these lines. Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. When a positive feedback develops between the trend and the misconception, a boom-bust process is set in motion. The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way, and if it is strong enough to survive these tests, both the trend and the misconception will be reinforced.”
FT beyond brics - BJP party ranks swelled by defectors. Meanwhile some prominent Congress pols are standing down.
Krugman - favouring wealth over work. The big not-so-secret is that the kleptocratic elite are the ones who control government.
Ultimate Classic Rock - Billy Gibbons defends Nickelback. This is what Billy Gibbons said:
“We were touring the U.S., up the North West. It was the day before our own show, they were playing and we were curious, so we popped down to catch the band’s performance. You have to note the great vocal stylings that Chad Kroeger can bring to the party. Man, he can sing for days.”Billy, I'm sorry to break it to you, but Chad Kroeger singing for days is not a good thing.
Here's three China weeklies for a quick dose of reality:
The big China 25 government-owned conglomerates have sucked recently, but the long-term chart simply shows three years of not really going down or up or anything. Til this breaks down I don't see why anyone should be freaking over China.
The China all-cap has a better apparent uptrend than the FXI, which I guess means private business is outperforming the China 25. Again, the long-term chart looks good, not bad.
And China Tech (Jim O'Neill's "new China") has been on an unbelievably sexxay tear over this past year. It's almost a double from August 2012.
Where's the China dooooom? The charts are the charts, they are what they are.
Hey. Why is gold down more than silver today?
Wow, that doesn't look good:
It went as high as US$2.80, and since then it lost a whole dollar.
Then again, at this moment it's -3SD and at something like 8X 2013 cash flow.
I like the company and its people, ignorant as I am about what the heck's going on here. So I'm tempted to buy, but haven't done anything yet.
The Daily Gold - gold 2011 peak versus past bubbles. Wherein he gives us this chart:
Hey Jojo, I addressed this back in November 2013:
Greatest Blorg in the Universe - the chart shows a bubble, why does everyone deny it?
The problem with your chart above, at least in the case of today's gold versus 2000 Nasdaq, is you're comparing a commodity versus the companies that (supposedly) made money off it.
If you compare my post's "indiscriminate basket of gold miners and explorecos" chart against the Nasdaq bubble, you'll see that the miner space was indeed in a bubble just like the Nasdaq.
The difference, I guess, is that if you chart 2000-2002 internet bandwidth usage, internet commerce, and so on, that chart probably also looks a lot better than the contemporaneous Nasdaq index. In reality, it was the equities that were grossly overvalued; the investment thesis was sound (there was still massive growth in the underlying commodity), it's just the equity valuations were stupid.
Exactly like with the GDXJ.
This is meant to illustrate a problem for you. Nasdaq took a decade to get back to its previous highs, despite the internet continuing to explode. The miner indexes might also take a decade to get back to their previous highs.
Then again, a valid retort is that internet use and internet commerce is a different commodity than gold.
Here's some reading to get you started:
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - bank breakout. He called it. Quote:
I’ve said recently that the biggest, most glaring inefficiency in the entire market right now – at least to my own eye – is the fact that bank stocks are the very cheapest on forward PE and at the same time are the primary beneficiary of a (slowly) rising rate environment. Financial stocks across all market caps are selling at a forward PE of under 7 right now while consumer goods and utility stocks sell at forward PEs of around 15. I think the market has had this completely wrong but is in the process of coming around.It's a market inefficiency, and the chart shows people are now coming around. So buy. Simple.
Ritholtz - the Fed and hyperinflation. Interesting, quote:
Wouldn’t it be something if we only start to smell inflation after QE has been reversed, after all the hyper inflationistas have crawled back into their cave? Markets have a unique ability to forecast the future, don’t look now you guys, but the CRB commodity index is up 10% YTD.Hey Barry, if that's true then you should buy gold, no? I know it doesn't work in reality, but it is the way Wall Street Whitey thinks, no? And by the way, Barry: hyperinflation where? Do the emerging markets count, or only the West?
BI - China easing coming? That's what everybody's hoping for now. Bad news from China is apparently good news.
Fiscal Times - how Obama crippled a Russian bank with the stroke of a pen. I wish we could see more of this New World Order where all warfare is economic, and poor people don't get led off to get slaughtered in combat. After all, the USA has achieved supremacy in world financial markets, no? So why not fight on the most favourable battlefield?
Mining.com - hedge funds' bullish gold bets surge. Is that the mark of the top, then? I don't like being on the side of hedge funds, I'd rather be on the side of economic reality.
Jojo's Daily Gold - failed breakout marks interim top. To be entirely fair, he's saying what nobody else is saying, and I guess he's calling for a right shoulder to get drawn on the miners chart. To the extent that he's a TA and people use TA to play the markets, he's got a good chance of being right.
Aeon - why we love repetition in music. For me personally, nothing was a bigger high than setting up my D2 and turning out repetitive trance for a half-hour straight. So here's the science!