Wednesday, April 25, 2018
Oh and also, Google is slow today, so I guess the Russians are trying to hack them again.
at 7:56 AM
BI - American investors just went pessimistic on the market. And you know what this has always meant in the past? Great time to buy stocks.
Also, Business Insider has an article on Albert Edwards being pessimistic, which isn't as perfect a bottom-tick indicator as worthless idiot Raoul Pal but it's close.
Strangely, though, BI expects people to want to pay for Albert Edwards' worthless fucking nonsense. I guess they aren't making money on advertising anymore so they have to go the paywall route and hope for enough stupidity to keep them in business.
If you don't remember, anal-application-of-synthetic-stimulants pioneer John McAfee offered to eat his own dick on national TV if Bitcoin doesn't go to $500,000 by July 2020.
Given that bullshit "alternative currencies" are proliferating like bunnies, there is literally no way that this can happen.*
But all is not lost, John McAfee!:
BBC News - US soldier gets first penis and scrotum transplant.
* - well, it can happen if these people are somehow able to use their existing crypto holdings as security on loans to buy more crypto. And actually, I'd love to see that happen, just to see how much they bleat when they lose more than 100%.
Sunday, April 22, 2018
Had to study for exams, and was otherwise bummed at having fucking ice and snow in April, but now that everything has more or less worked out I'm back online!
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Rail is still fantastic, tax withholding is down due to the Trump tax cuts, and Baltic Dry seems to be spiking with resources.
Speaking of which, a late-cycle thing to look out for is a spike in commodities. Seems we're getting there now. That might be nice for miner stocks....
Friday, April 20, 2018
Friday, April 13, 2018
Thursday, April 12, 2018
BIG is always a fantastic dose of reality:
Bespoke Investment Group - jobless claims streak of 162 straight weeks.
Bespoke Investment Group - AAII bullish sentiment collapses.
Add that to the $VIX finally collapsing below its EMA(20) and you've got a fantastic reason to buy, not sell.
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
Was checking my blog stats in the first time in forever, and saw a flurry of hits yesterday on my "Is Daniela Cambone married?" post from years back.
That always means Daniela's just put up a video on YouTube where she's interviewed someone. Usually it's someone utterly reprehensible like Peter Schiff or Doug Casey who drives the hits to this blog.
But today, it's the only mildly reprehensible, but also in this case funny and loveable, Mark Cuban:
Daniela doesn't manage to get Mark to show her where on the doll the bad goldbug touched him.
At least he can get uproarious laughs out of her, which means he has ten times the charm of her typical guest.
And you can tell he thinks she's hot.
Reuters - older educated voters shift away from Trump. Quote:
The 12-point swing is one of the largest shifts in support toward Democrats that the Reuters/Ipsos poll has measured over the past two years. If that trend continues, Republicans will struggle to keep control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, in the November elections, potentially dooming President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.A year ago I would have called bullshit on this, given it's mainly House incumbent Dems who are up for reelection in November. Then again, if Alabama can swing Democrat, that's possibly indicative of a major shift to the world of American politics, no?
“The real core for the Republicans is white, older white, and if they’re losing ground there, they’re going to have a tsunami,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who closely tracks political races. “If that continues to November, they’re toast.”
Though obviously I know a lot of this commentary comes with a hidden undercurrent of Democrat wishful thinking.
WSJ - leverage will determine if China or the US comes out on top. The problem China faces in a "trade war" is that a country with the large trade surplus and low exports doesn't have much room for retaliatory tariffs. If the US imposes $150B in tariffs on China, that's a greater amount than China's entire US imports: so what are they going to do in retaliation?
China’s $506 billion worth of exports to the U.S. last year equaled 4% of its gross domestic product, while the U.S.’s $130 billion worth of exports to China equaled just 0.7% of GDP. This makes Chinese growth more at risk in a trade war. It also means that if both countries carry through on their threats to apply tariffs to $50 billion of the other’s exports, the U.S. has way more targets left to hit afterward than China.
Tariffs on Chinese imports raise costs for Americans but they would be easily manageable given the size of the U.S. economy. Indeed, perhaps the biggest risk to China from a trade war is that global manufacturers no longer regard it as a reliable base from which to supply the U.S. and shift operations elsewhere. If China retaliates by punishing U.S. companies’ operations in China, for example with health or safety violations, it aggravates that risk. Foreign investment has been key to China’s acquisition of technological and industrial know-how.
China could attempt to roil U.S. markets by selling, or buying fewer, U.S. Treasury bonds. But global trading in those bonds is so heavy the consequences may not be great; and it would push China’s currency higher, further endangering exports.
U.S. exports to China are not easily replaced. Several bloggers have observed that China imports so much of the world’s soybean supply that it has few alternatives to the U.S. Brazil, the only other major supplier, is already reaching its capacity. That means China would have to keep importing American soybeans while its tariff rippled through to the price of tofu, bean curd, animal feed and thus chicken and pork. “Chinese tariffs would no doubt hurt US farmers, but likely hurt Chinese consumers more,” Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations said on Twitter.
So I think all this "OMG China trade warz!!!!" nonsense is going to melt away, and the market will suddenly remember Trump's tax breaks to corporations as earnings season progresses.
Friday, April 6, 2018
Fun fact: Terry Hall from Fun Boy Three actually co-wrote this song, so it's not even a cover.